تأثیر بیش‎اطمینانی مدیران بر سیاست تقسیم سود شرکت‎های پذیرفته‎شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

ویژگی­های شخصیتی مدیران، از عوامل مهمِ تصمیم­گیری مدیران­ درخصوص سیاست تقسیم سود به‎شمار می‎رود. یکی از مهم‎ترین ویژگی­های شخصیتی مدیران بیش‎اطمینانی است؛ مدیران نسبت به سودها و جریان­های نقدی آتی واحد تجاری خود خوش‎بین هستند و چشم­انداز مثبتی از ریسک و بازده آتی شرکت دارند.از این رو، هدف این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر بیش­اطمینانی مدیران بر سیاست تقسیم سود است. به‎منظور آزمون فرضیه­های پژوهش، به بررسی 56 شرکت پذیرفته‎شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در دورۀ زمانی 1386 تا 1391 پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد بین بیش­اطمینانی مدیران و تقسیم سود شرکت ارتباط منفی و معناداری وجود دارد؛ به‎گونه‎ای که مدیران بیش­اطمینان تقسیم سود کمتری دارند. همچنین بررسی­ها نشان داد با افزایش جریان­های نقدی عملیاتی، مدیرِ بیش‎اطمینان جریان­های نقدی عملیاتی آتی بالاتری را برآورد می‎کند و سود تقسیمی بیشتری را می‎پردازد. از سوی دیگر، جدا از اینکه مدیر بیش­اطمینان باشد یا منطقی، مدیر شرکت با فرصت­های رشد بالاتر سود تقسیمی کمتری پرداخت می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of managers' overconfidence on dividend policy in the firms listed in Tehran stock market

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahnaz Mashayekh 1
  • Samira Behzadpur 2
1 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Economic and social Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Candidate, Faculty of Economic and social Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The characteristic of managers' personality is a key factor in their dividend policy. Overconfidence is an important feature of managers who are optimism about future earnings and cash flows and have a positive view of potential risk and return. Hence, we are going to investigate the effect of managers' overconfidence on dividend policy. We study 56 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2007 to 2012 to test the hypothesis. The results show that there is a significant and negative relation between managers' overconfidence and dividend policy; in other words they have lower dividend payout. We also demonstrate that an overconfident manager perceives the current operating cash flow as a stronger predictor of future operating cash flow so and increases the dividend payout. In addition regardless of whether the manager is rational or overconfident, a manager in a higher-growth firm pays a smaller dividend than a similar manager in a lower-growth firm.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • cash flows
  • Corporate governance
  • dividend policy
  • growth opportunities
  • Overconfidence

مراجع

Ahmed, A. S. & Duellman, S. (2012). Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism. Journal of Accounting Research, 51 (1): 1-30.
Alavi Tabari, H., Mojtahedzade, V., Soleimani Amiri, GH., Ameli, Y. (2009). The Relationship of Earnings Quality and Dividend: Listed Companies in TSE. The Iranian accounting & auditing review, 16 (56): 93-10.
(in Persian)
Ben-David, I. Graham, J. & Harvey, C. (2007). managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. Working Paper, Available at: http://www.nber.org/ papers /w13711.
Ben-David, I. Graham, J. & Harvey, C. (2010). Managerial Miscalibration. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper Series No. 16215. Available in: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16215.
Bertrand, M. & Schoar, A. (2003). Managing with style: The effect of managers on firm policies. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (4): 301–330.
Corderio, L. (2009). Managerial Overconfidence and Dividend Policy. working paper, London Business School, Available at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ papers.cfm?abstract_id=1343805.
Deshmukh, S., Goel, A. & Howe, K. (2013). CEO Overconfidence and Dividend Policy. Finance Intermediation, 22 (3): 440-463.
Etemadi, H., Chalaki, P. (2005). The relationship between corporate performance and cash dividends in firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The Iranian accounting & auditing review, 12 (39): 31-47. (in Persian)
Fakhari, H., Yusefali Tabar, N. (2010). The study of relationship between dividend policy & corporate governance in Tehran Stock Exchange. The Iranian accounting & auditing review, 17 (62): 69-84. (in Persian)
Ferris, S. Jayaraman, N. & Sabherwal, S. (2011). CEO overconfidence and international merger and acquisition activity. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (JFQA), Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn. com/abstract=1982286.
Galasso, A. & Simcoe,T. (2011). CEO overconfidence and innovation. Management Science, 57(8): 1469–1484.
Hackbarth, D. (2008). Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43 (4): 843–882.
Heaton, J. (2002). Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance. Financial Management, 31(2): 33– 45.
Hirshleifer, D. Low, A. & Teoh, S. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators? The Journal of Finance, 67(4): 1457–1498.
Ishikawa, H. Takahashi, k. (2010). overconfident managers and external financing choice. Review of behavioral finance, 2 (1): 37–58.
Kamiabi, Y., Nikravan Fard, B., Salmani, R. (2014). The relationship between cash flow volatility and cash flow sensitivity of cash with dividend policy in Tehran stock exchange. The Iranian accounting & auditing review, 21 (2): 211-228. (in Persian)
Li, J. & Tong, W. (2012). Managerial Overconfidence, CEO Selection and Corporate Investment: An Empirical Analysis. Working paper, available at: www.ssrn.com.
Lin, Y.-H., Hu, S.-Y., & Chen, M.-S. (2005). Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13 (5): 523-546.
Malmendier, U. & Tate, G. (2005). CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment. European Financial Management, 11 (5): 649-659.
Malmendier, U. & Tate, G. (2008). Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction.  Journal of Financial Economics, 89 (1): 20-43.
Malmendier, U. Tate, G. & Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and Early-life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies. The Journal of Finance, 66 (5): 1687-1733.
Malmendier, U. Tate, G. &Yan, J. (2007). Corporate financial policies with overconfident managers. NBER Working Paper No. 13570, Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13570.
Roll, R. (1986). The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers. Journal of Business, 59 (2): 197–216.
Saidi, A. Frhanyan, M. (2012). fundamentals of economic and financial behaviore, published by Tehran Stock Exchange. (in Persian)
Saidi, A., Behnam, K. (2010). Examining the determinants of dividend policy of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Scientific Journal of Management, 18 (7): 61-71. (in Persian)
Saidi, P. (2003). Survey of Effective Factors on Dividend Policy of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. PHD thesis, Islamic Azad University of Tehran. (in Persian)
Shams Lialestani, M., Ghalibaf Asl, H., Sarabi Nobakht, S. (2010). The Impact of Experience on Risktaking, Overconfidence and Herding of Investment Companies’ Managers in Tehran Stock Exchange. Quarterly Journal of Securities Exchange, 12  (3): 25-89. (in Persian)
Wu, C., Liu, V. (2010). Payout policy and CEO overconfidence. working Paper. National sun Yat-sen University. Taiwan. Available at: http//:www. ssrn.com.
Zhang, H. (2008). Corporate governance and dividend policy: a comparison of Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong and in the mainland, china economic review , 19 (3): 437-459.
 

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار