تأثیر بیش‎اطمینانی مدیران بر سیاست تقسیم سود شرکت‎های پذیرفته‎شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

ویژگی­های شخصیتی مدیران، از عوامل مهمِ تصمیم­گیری مدیران­ درخصوص سیاست تقسیم سود به‎شمار می‎رود. یکی از مهم‎ترین ویژگی­های شخصیتی مدیران بیش‎اطمینانی است؛ مدیران نسبت به سودها و جریان­های نقدی آتی واحد تجاری خود خوش‎بین هستند و چشم­انداز مثبتی از ریسک و بازده آتی شرکت دارند.از این رو، هدف این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر بیش­اطمینانی مدیران بر سیاست تقسیم سود است. به‎منظور آزمون فرضیه­های پژوهش، به بررسی 56 شرکت پذیرفته‎شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در دورۀ زمانی 1386 تا 1391 پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد بین بیش­اطمینانی مدیران و تقسیم سود شرکت ارتباط منفی و معناداری وجود دارد؛ به‎گونه‎ای که مدیران بیش­اطمینان تقسیم سود کمتری دارند. همچنین بررسی­ها نشان داد با افزایش جریان­های نقدی عملیاتی، مدیرِ بیش‎اطمینان جریان­های نقدی عملیاتی آتی بالاتری را برآورد می‎کند و سود تقسیمی بیشتری را می‎پردازد. از سوی دیگر، جدا از اینکه مدیر بیش­اطمینان باشد یا منطقی، مدیر شرکت با فرصت­های رشد بالاتر سود تقسیمی کمتری پرداخت می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of managers' overconfidence on dividend policy in the firms listed in Tehran stock market

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahnaz Mashayekh 1
  • Samira Behzadpur 2
1 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Economic and social Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Candidate, Faculty of Economic and social Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The characteristic of managers' personality is a key factor in their dividend policy. Overconfidence is an important feature of managers who are optimism about future earnings and cash flows and have a positive view of potential risk and return. Hence, we are going to investigate the effect of managers' overconfidence on dividend policy. We study 56 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2007 to 2012 to test the hypothesis. The results show that there is a significant and negative relation between managers' overconfidence and dividend policy; in other words they have lower dividend payout. We also demonstrate that an overconfident manager perceives the current operating cash flow as a stronger predictor of future operating cash flow so and increases the dividend payout. In addition regardless of whether the manager is rational or overconfident, a manager in a higher-growth firm pays a smaller dividend than a similar manager in a lower-growth firm.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • cash flows
  • Corporate governance
  • dividend policy
  • growth opportunities
  • Overconfidence
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