پیش‎بینی دستکاری سود: توسعۀ یک مدل

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین‎المللی امام خمینی (ره) قزوین، ایران

2 کارشناس‎ارشد حسابداری، سرگروه حسابداری آموزش و پرورش املش، استان گیلان، ایران

چکیده

دستکاری سود در چارچوب اصول پذیرفته‎شدۀ حسابداری، همان مدیریت سود است که ممکن است کارا یا فرصت‎طلبانه باشد، اما دستکاری از طریق نقض اصول‌ پذیرفته‎‌شدۀ‌ حسابداری، نوعی تقلب به‎شمار می‎رود. در هر صورت دستکاری سود، مانع از ارزیابی صحیح عملکرد شرکت می‌شود. توسعۀ مدلی که بتوان از طریق آن به پیش‌بینی دستکاری‌ سود پرداخت، امکان ارزیابی‌های بهتری از عملکرد شرکت‌ها فراهم می‎آورد. بدین منظور این پژوهش درصدد است ضرایب مدل ‌دستکاری ‌سود بنیش را تعدیل کند و بر مبنای بهترین متغیرهای پیش‌بینی‌کننده، مدلی بومی برای پیش‌بینی ‌دستکاری ‌سود، توسعه دهد. در این راستا داده‌های 90 شرکت تولیدی (990 مشاهده) پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال‌های 1391- 1381 به‎کمک رویکرد تمایزی و لاجیت بررسی شد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد در محیط اقتصادی ایران، مدل اولیۀ بنیش نسبت به مدل تعدیل‌شدۀ بنیش، قدرت خوبی برای شناسایی سطوح دستکاری ‌سود ندارد. مدل تعدیل‌شدۀ بنیش و مدل‌های توسعه‎یافته با رویکرد تحلیل ‌تمایزی و لاجیت به‎ترتیب با دقت کلی 72 ، 75 و 81 درصد، قادر به شناسایی شرکت‌های دستکاری‌کننده و ‌غیر‌دستکاری‌کنندۀ‌ سود هستند. همچنین شواهد نشان داد اطلاعات‌ حسابداری برای پیش‌بینی دستکاری‌ سود، مفید است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Prediction of Earnings Manipulation: Development of a Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Gholamreza Kordestani 1
  • Rashid Tatli 2
1 Imam Khomeini International University
2 Islamic Azad University of Qazvin
چکیده [English]

Earnings Manipulation within GAAP same of Earnings Management, that may be Efficient or Opportunistic. But Earnings manipulation is fraud through violation of GAAP. However, Earnings Manipulation is prevented from properly evaluate the company's performance. The development of a model that can be used to help predict earnings manipulation, it can be provide possible to better evaluate the company's performance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to adjustment coefficients of beneish model and development of a new model for prediction of earnings manipulation based on the best predictor variables. For this purpose, all manufacturing firms of Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2002- 2012, include 990 Observation, with the discriminant and logit analysis, were studied. The results indicate that on Iran economic environment, beneish model, not able to identify earnings manipulation. the adjusted beneish model and developed models of discriminant and logit analysis approach, respectively with overall accuracy 72%, 75% and 81%, is able to identify earnings manipulator and non- manipulator firms. Also evidence showed that accounting information is useful for prediction of earnings manipulation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Beneish Model
  • Beneish Adjusted Model
  • Earnings Manipulation Model
  • Fruad
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