عنوان مقاله [English]
The forecasts of the earnings per share is of special importance in investments. The importance of this forecasts is dependent to the it`s variation of reality. The less, the variation, the more acute ,the forecasts and this matter is important both for the user and the producer.
The manager try to estimate the future`s earnings per share in away that to get the user`s trust. In contrast ,the investors can estimate the future`s earnings per share, using other methods like timeseries model ( random walk model).This study compares the accuracy of this forecasts.
To do this ,the forecasts of 279 firm studied using the method of the means` difference; these included 639 observation during 1381-84.The comparison of the difference between the two means showed that the manager` forecast is more accurate than the forecasts based on the forecasts based on random walk model. in addition , the managers` forecast of the firms` earnings is more accurate than the earning forecast through timeseries model in the form of the increase of the earning forecast than real earning in profitable firms and larger firms comparing to profit decrease in loss firms and smaller firms.