Development of the Beneish Model by Combining Artificial Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Earnings Management Prediction

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Accounting, Islamic Azad University, beleh savar branch

2 Associate Prof., Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Objective: According to Beneish (1999), “earnings manipulation happens as an instance where management violates Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)inordertobeneficiallyrepresentthefirm’s financial performance.” In this research, the development of the Beneish model (DBM) was done through emphasizing non-accounting variables,including the Information Asymmetry (IS) and Product Market Competition (PMC).
Methods: The data was collected for 184 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during the past 11 years 2006-2017. The coefficients of models were estimated by trained Artificial Neural Network (ANN) through PSO algorithm. In order to provide the potential of comparability, ten run with 300 iterations in each run were done for both the Beneish model (BM) and (DBM), then were stopped after convergence.
Results: Research results indicate that training error of ANN trained by PSO algorithm measured by mean square error (MSE) was reduced from 0/0807 to 0/0777 by the development of BM. The area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) for BM was calculated up to 0/5792, which is located in very low confidence range of 0/5-0/6, indicating failed test result and high prediction error up to 39/74 percent. Consequently the best cut-off point and the best precision for BM were estimated to be 0/5021, 60/26 percent, by the maximum accuracy method, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the AUC for DBM was increased to 0/6335 through incorporating environmental variables of Product Market Competition (PMC) and information symmetry (IS) to the BM, which is still out of an acceptable range of 0/7–0/8 for a relatively good test, indicating poor test result and high model prediction error up to 32/58 percent. Consequently the best cut-off point and the best precision for DBM were estimated to be 0/5304, 67/42 percent by the intersection point of minimum distance and Youden's index, respectively. Incorporating PMC and IS variables to the original model of Beneish decreased model prediction error from 39/74 to 32/58 percent, which is not statistically significant. Nevertheless, this fact improved the predictive power of the BM slightly insignificant.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that the BM is a random model in Iranian capital market and impotent to detect two groups of earning manipulator and non-earning manipulator companies. Although findings indicate that the DBM is a little bit more powerful than the BM and confirm that the impact of environmental variables of PMC and IS is slightly insignificant, indicating the test outcome is still weak and the DBM is an approximately random model in identifying two groups of earning manipulator and non-earning manipulator companies.

Keywords

References

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Accounting and Auditing Review
Volume 26, Issue 4
2019
Pages 615-638

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