Market Reaction to Substantial Deviations from Dividend Trends



In this research, the market reaction to the changes of dividends, resulting from the dividend payment trend, is evaluated. In other words, conditions of the reaction of the investors to each of the three trends: increasing trend, decreasing trend, and no major changes trend, is evaluated. Each group is evaluated using CAPM and Fama French 3 Factor (FF3F) methods. Results of the increasing trend show that fundamental positive deviation results in positive reaction of the market; while stable deviation causes minor negative reaction and fundamental negative deviation causes the same, too. In a stable trend, fundamental increase causes positive reaction, continuation of the stable trend causes significant minor negative reaction, and fundamental decrease causes significant negative reaction from the market. In a decreasing trend, fundamental decrease and fundamental increase result in minor negative reaction of the market, and continuation of the stable trend results in the positive reaction. Results of the evaluation show that following a specific trend, the market shows a positive reaction to the increase of the trend. The market would not show an unexpected reaction as long as the institute follows its ongoing trend. With regard to the point that the market reaction to the fundamental positive deviation of a negative trend is negative, it can be concluded that positive news, regarding to a negative trend, would not face a suitable reaction from the market, and the market follows the same trend in these kinds of deviations